'Epitomy of reliability': The Swans' reign is over, but they're still the team to beat

Hindsight being the wonderful vantage point it is, it's easy now to say defeat had been coming, the Swans having to overhaul five and four-goal deficits in recent weeks, then conceding eight of the first 10 goals to the Dockers.

Even then, though, Sydney nonetheless ended up with a shot at goal to win after the final siren. And the fact the Swans remain two games clear of the rest of the competition gives you an idea how much better they've been to date than their rivals.

Why? Well, remaining the AFL's highest-scoring and stingiest defensive team certainly helps.

But if season 2024 is underlining anything, it's that this year's premiership is most likely to be won not necessarily by the most brilliant team, but the most reliable.

And in such a tight competition, that quality is becoming increasingly hard to find.

Take Geelong, for example, which was the early pacesetter this year with seven straight wins to kick off the new season, but then lost six of its next seven games.

Carlton is currently clearly second only to the Swans, and has now won its past five games after having won its first four. In between, however, the Blues lost four games out of six, and scraped over the line in one of those two victories by just a point.

Reigning premier Collingwood, meanwhile, is even more up and down.

The Magpies lost their first games, won six and drew another of their next seven, but have now won just twice in the past five games, and had to claw back a nine-goal deficit against North Melbourne for one of those.

Consistency and dependability is going to be the key to this premiership, most likely to be won by the team which can find enough of those qualities to qualify for finals in a position of strength, then to win the most important three or four games of the football year.

The gap between most teams now is wafer-thin, and that's not only reflected on an AFL ladder in which currently no fewer than teams sitting between third and 13th positions are separated by only a game-and-a-half.

It's also reflected in consistently close games. Last weekend, for example, we had another three matches decided by single figure margins.

There's now been 36 of the 135 played so far in 2024 which have been decided by nine points or less, a strike rate of just over 25 per cent. That's a lot of nailbiters.

Maintain composure and a consistent level of output, and teams can win the bulk of them, as Collingwood has now consistently for two-and-a-half seasons. But even good teams are often slipping up.

Last Friday night's final term at the Gabba between Brisbane and Melbourne was a study in unpredictability, inconsistency and error, at times suited to the Benny Hill soundtrack such were some of the howlers being committed, 3.10 the net return for both teams, who by the end couldn't hit the side of a barn, let alone a regulation target.

Brisbane's shocking inaccuracy almost cost it victory, and not for the first time. But Melbourne's lapses were even worse, the Demons playing one of the best quarters of any team this year in slamming on eight goals in the second term, but managing just three goals for the rest of the game.

Carlton, meanwhile, gave another demonstration of its scoring potency against Richmond on Sunday, the Blues having kicked 41 goals in the past two games, and having topped 100 points in four of the past five games.

Yet Carlton across the season still has a poor defensive record, ranked only 13th for fewest points conceded.

It's something of which coach Michael Voss will be acutely aware given that no premiership team of the 21st century (that is, the last 24) has ranked any lower than sixth in that same statistical category.

It's another reason Sydney won't be too worried by last Saturday's loss. Apart from the Swans' No.1 ranking for attack and defence, they're ranked top six in no fewer than 32 of 38 key statistical indicators.

Sure, they're flashy, the likes of Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden all class, their ball movement slick, and their spread of goalkickers up forward potent.

But above and beyond even that, Sydney in 2024 is reliable. In a season in which every other team has had trouble at some stage, the Swans continue to produce a high minimum standard of effort and output week after week, even their two defeats this season by less than a kick.

They are the epitome of reliability. And if this year's premiership is to head anywhere other than the Harbour City, Sydney's rivals are going to have to start proving just as dependable pretty quickly.