We're sailing towards catastrophe, but we can still turn this ship around

In climate science circles we like to say every fraction of a degree of avoided warming matters. And that means every small course correction, made early enough, can change the collision course and help avert outright disaster. But if we leave these course corrections too late, the ship sinks.

Unlike the hapless captain and crew of the Titanic, thanks to the culmination of decades of work by thousands of scientists, we know precisely where the iceberg is and how to avert striking it.

What we don't currently have is the crew pulling together to divert the course. And our current is heading far from where it needs to be, despite knowing where we are liable to end up.

The last IPCC assessment report for at least the next five years is set to come out. This is arguably the world's most rigorous and biggest scientific undertaking. We ignore its findings at our peril.

Over the next few days, you'll see a lot of headlines about this being "the final warning" for humanity and frankly terrifying phrases like "hurtling towards extinction" and "an unlivable future".

That's because the 2020s really is the make-or-break decade for making corrections now that will get us off the collision course. The question is, what kind of world will we be living in when the next IPCC report comes out, at around the end of this decade?

If all nations - including our own - really tackle this problem with the same energy and decisiveness we drew upon to create a vaccine for COVID-19 or to send humans to the moon, it is possible to be hopeful for a better future.

By 2030, our air will be cleaner, we will be enjoying the benefits of being plugged into 100% renewable energy, EVs will be commonplace and most of us will get around via public transport or by using our legs or bikes. Our children will feel more hopeful about the future.

Yes, we'll still have to face severe disasters but we'll be better equipped to weather those storms. Our homes will be more comfortable and more resilient to the elements. We'll have a new generation of Australians upskilling to drive the new clean industries, looking forward to exciting jobs in a prosperous, renewables-powered economy. We'll be working in partnership with the Pacific and with communities worldwide towards a more just and equal future.

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On our current course, however, 2030 doesn't look quite as rosy. We could find Australia has been left behind in the global transition to renewables. If we cling to our fossil fuel-loving past, energy prices will be even more eye-wateringly expensive. Unreliable and ageing fossil fuel plants will cause severe power shortages because we didn't get on with building clean, modern energy systems. More and more communities in our region and beyond will face being torn from their land and homes.

We'll live with regret and with a profound sense of sadness for all that has been lost forever. The fear and anxiety that grips many of us, even now, will be even more pronounced. Our air will be dirtier, our communities more divided and vulnerable. We'll be more isolated, more fearful and excruciatingly wistful for what could have been.

It doesn't have to be like this. We must plot a course to halving global emissions by 2030. It's time for all nations to pull together and honour their pledges. The actions must match the words. In Australia, we can and should go even further and aim for net zero by 2035. We can do this, it is not 1912. We now have the benefit of technology and sophisticated maps to guide us.

So consider this last IPCC report an SOS, sent just in time to get the ship on a safer heading. We are acutely aware that this ship is far from unsinkable. So will we heed the alarm, or power full steam ahead into the darkness?

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